Catching the falling knife

8 June, 2006 (21:52) | Journal | By: Colin McGinley

An interesting day today.  Dirk said to wait for the ECB policy statement before making any entries today as there could be some downward movement, even resulting in a return to Q1 territory.  Well he was right.

The interesting part comes in how I handled it.  I remember in my first 4-6 weeks of demo trading how I would generally only take positions when the market was ‘at rest’.  I don’t remember making entries soon after any major news announcements.  This let price settle and allowed me to make more laid back, less stressful decisions.  Not being caught up in the moment.

I remember thinking about this as price made steady progress during and after the ECB interest rate statement.  There were some short rest periods on the way down, and I bought at these, but with hindsight the way I approached this a few months ago makes much more sense.  As evidenced by the way that price has just plateaued once it came down to the 1.262-5 area.

It would have resulted in not having my current Q2 position, and a lower Q1 position than the one I now have.  A good lesson learned for future rate announcement.  I don’t need to try and catch the falling knife.

EUR-USD chart

There is a good chance that Euro will rally in the days ahead, but the way the dollar is performing I can’t discount some more lingering strength.

Let’s see it the Q1 boundary holds, or else I’ll have to unwind a trade or two.

I should look to only make birthday entries on quiet news days (or at least non-important ones) or if there is range bound trading.

I need to not be so impulse if watching the news happen.

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