The end of Japan’s zero-interest rate policy

15 July, 2006 (18:38) | Journal | By: Colin McGinley

This week saw some renewed dollar strength.  I had one successful bread and butter trade on Tuesday.  I opened another position later that day and another one on Wednesday.  It became increasingly obvious that there was going to be more dollar strength for the rest of the week, primarily due to the expected BOJ interest rate rise to end their zero-interest rate policy.  Another case of buy the rumor, sell the fact.  The BOJ did in fact increase rates and the dollar strengthened both against the yen and euro.

EUR-USD chart

I had a strong sense that the dollar would strengthen on Friday but since my current one direction is long euro I did not enter a short position.  It would have been a trade towards the median line and I would have aimed for 30-50 pips only.

I’m thinking that I have enough experience with the 4×1 methodology that taking the rare, high probability trades counter to my one direction are a viable additional to my trading arsenal.

Trade result

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