Comments on: From the frying pan to the fire http://www.forexspirit.com/2007/12/15/from-the-frying-pan-to-the-fire/ Colin McGinley's journey of forex trading by a thousand cuts Tue, 24 Jan 2012 06:42:32 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v= By: Colin McGinley http://www.forexspirit.com/2007/12/15/from-the-frying-pan-to-the-fire/comment-page-1/#comment-891 Colin McGinley Mon, 17 Dec 2007 04:06:17 +0000 http://www.forexspirit.com/2007/12/15/from-the-frying-pan-to-the-fire/#comment-891 @caprica: I did not have a disaster stop in place; I rarely ever do, instead relying on mental stops which I can obviously only put into practice whenever I'm actively monitoring the market. As I mention in my latest post, even when I see the correction coming a mile off I still don't seem to get out of the way. My post about The Economist front page is a prime example. The dollar bulls were sure to come out and play. Yet even when I had my chance to go all square and sit back and wait I didn't take it. @Igor: Even though I see the dollar trend in the very long term still being bearish, I don't think I'll be sitting it out until the dollar starts to get thumped again. If you look at the dollar bull move in EUR-USD during 2005, any dollar strengthening move can go on for quite a while. We might be looking at a similar sort of scenario unfolding here, even in the face of future Fed cuts and high eurozone inflation. Long-term means different time frames for different people. For me and my trading plan it generally equates to the next six or so months. Therefore if I think the dollar is going to strengthen during that period that becomes my one direction and I'll go with it. I think it's going to be very hard to get any true picture of the trend for next year from what happens in the rest of December. There is too little volume and too much volatility around this time to base any real decisions on. @caprica:
I did not have a disaster stop in place; I rarely ever do, instead relying on mental stops which I can obviously only put into practice whenever I’m actively monitoring the market.

As I mention in my latest post, even when I see the correction coming a mile off I still don’t seem to get out of the way. My post about The Economist front page is a prime example. The dollar bulls were sure to come out and play. Yet even when I had my chance to go all square and sit back and wait I didn’t take it.

@Igor:
Even though I see the dollar trend in the very long term still being bearish, I don’t think I’ll be sitting it out until the dollar starts to get thumped again.

If you look at the dollar bull move in EUR-USD during 2005, any dollar strengthening move can go on for quite a while. We might be looking at a similar sort of scenario unfolding here, even in the face of future Fed cuts and high eurozone inflation.

Long-term means different time frames for different people.

For me and my trading plan it generally equates to the next six or so months. Therefore if I think the dollar is going to strengthen during that period that becomes my one direction and I’ll go with it.

I think it’s going to be very hard to get any true picture of the trend for next year from what happens in the rest of December. There is too little volume and too much volatility around this time to base any real decisions on.

]]> By: Igor Podolsky http://www.forexspirit.com/2007/12/15/from-the-frying-pan-to-the-fire/comment-page-1/#comment-889 Igor Podolsky Sun, 16 Dec 2007 13:43:26 +0000 http://www.forexspirit.com/2007/12/15/from-the-frying-pan-to-the-fire/#comment-889 Hello, Colin. You say you see 3-4 months of short term dollar strenght. You trade in the direction of the long term trend - to the dollar weakness. Does it mean that you'll sit sideways all these 4 months waiting for the long term trend assure itself or you'll try to play short trend, thus violating your strategy? Hello, Colin.
You say you see 3-4 months of short term dollar strenght. You trade in the direction of the long term trend – to the dollar weakness. Does it mean that you’ll sit sideways all these 4 months waiting for the long term trend assure itself or you’ll try to play short trend, thus violating your strategy?

]]> By: caprica http://www.forexspirit.com/2007/12/15/from-the-frying-pan-to-the-fire/comment-page-1/#comment-888 caprica Sun, 16 Dec 2007 10:36:27 +0000 http://www.forexspirit.com/2007/12/15/from-the-frying-pan-to-the-fire/#comment-888 Did you have a disaster stop just below the bottom of your grid or are you still holding open positions and a big drawdown? btw. I agree with you on the long term fundamental direction of the USD, but I had taken most of my positions out of the market at the end of november feeling that the low liquidity in december could create a wild ride. I am still sitting and waiting for the resumption of the trend before my toes goes back in the water, perhaps in the new year. Did you have a disaster stop just below the bottom of your grid or are you still holding open positions and a big drawdown?

btw. I agree with you on the long term fundamental direction of the USD, but I had taken most of my positions out of the market at the end of november feeling that the low liquidity in december could create a wild ride. I am still sitting and waiting for the resumption of the trend before my toes goes back in the water, perhaps in the new year.

]]>