January 10, 2008

December 2007 Review

Posted by : Colin McGinley
Filed under : Journal

My first post of the new year is going to be of the slightly grisly kind. I am going to break down some of the figures that come from my trading results during December 2007.

If you read my blog last month you’ll know that I completely lost control of my trading situation and basically imploded my trading account.

Hopefully I’ll be able to focus on more positive, forward looking topics soon but I have posted a monthly review of my performance each and every month on this blog and I think it is important that I do so as usual. It sort of marks the end of one stage of my trading career and the start of another. After such a traumatic event nothing can ever be the same again.

I closed out 25 entries during December. Only eight of these entries were closed out in positive territory. Fully 14 of those entries were fatefully closed out when I threw in the towel on my positions on December 19.

My account return for the month was -79.09%. To get the true impact of my disastrous December this is what my account equity for the whole of last year looks like on a graph:

Account equity 2007

The simplified, short hand version is that I was overleveraged and did not handle my losses well at all.

There were many minor errors and mistakes in the prior weeks that culminated in this undesirable result. My trading had become ragged. I needed a break from trading to recharge my batteries but didn’t do so. I didn’t avail myself of the opportunity to extradite myself from the situation when I had the chance. I was pushing myself too hard. I was becoming impatient. I didn’t follow my gut. I didn’t step back and see the bigger picture often enough.

Obviously I want to try and make sure that I don’t make the same mistakes again going forward.

It’s pretty easy to quantify the ways in which this experience has not been pleasant at all. Losing money is never nice. Losing lots of money is even worse. Having to tell your spouse exactly how much money you’ve just lost is something I don’t ever want to have to do again. Especially when future use of that money was linked to potentially moving house or your child’s education.

You doubt if you have what it takes to be a successful trader. Your confidence takes a severe blow.

On the other hand there a few positives that can be taken from the situation. In a way I have the opportunity to completely reboot my trading approach. I can step back and examine my whole trading plan. I can pick over two years worth of trading results to try and determine what things worked well for me and what were my weaknesses.

I am currently putting in place tweaks to my trading plan, mainly on the money management side. The plan for the immediate future is to lock in these changes and to slowly start building back up my confidence by getting back into the market.


4 Comments so far ...

1. ewmeadows

Colin, I’m happy to hear your back in the running. I deeply sympathize with your losses, having lost about 18% of my account in the same basic market conditions.

I too will NEVER be the same (and that’s a good thing), and, I have come away with a much better understanding of myself, and trading, (specifically, as I think, in your own case, money management).

Dirk has been extremely helpful, and grounding, and instructive for me, during this fall, and consequent “revival”, and, I have somehow managed to make back 25% of what I lost, and my confidence and hope are back to where they were, but definitely tempered by this experience, and being more Cautious and Decisive, just about sums up the essence of the lessons that I have learned.

I hope your 2008 is THE BEST ever for you and your family, and that your recovery of losses will happen swiftly, Earle

Comment on January 10, 2008 03:15 pm

glad to see you are back online Colin and you are getting back up on the horse. I am looking forward to seeing how you go about tweaking your trading plan.

Looking at your equity curve, it seems to me that you had broken of some of the fundamental rules in the 4×1 strategy (i.e. not closing out your positions when your drawdown crossed your “line in the sand” and never holding more than 4:1 leverage in positions open). Do you know how highly leveraged you where at the peak?

p.s. I have been inspired by your blog on forexspirit.com. I have decided to start writing my own trading blog this year. It is over at http://www.macrotactics.com

Comment on January 11, 2008 07:51 am

My ‘line in the sand’ was essentially vaulted over by the sharp drop in EUR-USD and AUD-USD on December 13-14. Instead of seeing my drawdown smoothly approaching and passing through my ‘line in the sand’ of about 50% drawdown I woke up to find it way past that threshold already.
My actual max gearing allowed by my trading plan was around the 12:1 range. By trying to catch a falling knife one too many times in November my leverage ended up being around the 20:1 level.
Good luck with your trading blog!

Comment on January 11, 2008 11:56 am
4. james

Colin, it’s good to see that you are not losing heart. A brave man will pick himself up and keep on fighting. I agree that whatever that happens will allow you to build on the experience and tweak your strategy for better results in the future.

I am inspired by your blog and have signed up for Dirk’s mentoring class of 2008. Looking to join you guys in the trading journey!

Comment on January 15, 2008 08:18 am

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