Fact checking
Over the weekend I decided it was time I got back to catching up the small stack of trading books I have sitting on the shelf. Unsure as to which one to read first I picked out two and read the first 30 pages of each to see which piqued my interest more.
The two books battling it out were Day Trading the Currency Markets by Kathy Lien and Mastering the Trade by John Carter.
Kathy Lien’s book did not get off to the most promising start. In the first chapter, the forex market is explained and then compared to equities and futures. Somehow the forex market is better in every way; those pesky equity and futures markets are only open for a few hours a day. Examples are given of how expensive the spread and commission can be in a potential stock or future trade while nothing is mentioned about the large variety of spreads that exist on different currency pairs.
To my tough and cynical eyes the unbalanced comparison of forex to other tradable markets was nothing more than thinly veiled hype. What makes the cynicism all too easy to believe in is that Kathy Lien works for FXCM, one of the largest retail forex brokers around.
Statements of supposed fact are also uttered that had me raising my eyebrows in slight disbelief. For example:
“Most futures traders are technical traders, and as mentioned in the equities section, the FX market is perfect for technical analysis. In fact, it is the most commonly used analysis tool by professional traders.” (p. 12)
How exactly was that fact arrived at? Where’s the evidence? To me it just seemed to be a set-up: let the reader know that most of the pros make their money using technical analysis techniques, and then later in the book I’m sure there’s plenty of technical systems for them to try out.
The subtlety and sneakiness of this leapt out at me when I switched over and started to read John Carter’s Mastering the Trade.
John Carter kicks off Chapter 2 on Psychology 101 (always a good sign when trading psychology is placed way before any mention of markets or systems), with a section titled: Show me a guy with a system, and I’ll show you a guy who is welcome in my casino.
Any trader who is not 100% confident in their trading system ends up tweaking and modifying it when they experience a run of bad trades. The market has changed so I’d better re-jig my system parameters. This introduces the risk of making a mistake, such as by over-optimizing the system or getting flustered and over-riding your system’s signals.
“In the casinos, as in trading, it only takes one stupid bet to blow the whole wad. Casino owners know this, and this is why they sell the strategy books right there on the property, prominently displayed in their own gift shops. This elevates the concept of the fox guarding the hen house to a whole new level.” (p. 19)
While I’m sure Kathy Lien is a lovely lady, I think I’m going to stay clear of the foxes for now.
Related Posts:
- Review of Millionaire Traders
- Blogroll update
- FXCMExpo in Dallas, Texas
- Foreign Exchange on CNBC World
- When volume lies
Comments
Comment from Snake86
Time 16 July, 2008 at 8:07 am
Colin,
There are good parts in Kathy’s book, though much of it is biased towards the FX market. For example, the trading ranges of various pairs in different time frames, use of currency correlations, but once again, it’s really a beginners book.
However there is a Wiley book on Currency Strategy which explains a lot of technicalities, such as valuations models, etc. But it’s not one of the popular books and not necceserily a trading book but more of a deep-core theory book.
Also - you may do well not trading this week at all !! Don’t be tempted to jump in this week. The only trade which was going to be good this week was risk aversion across most JPY crosses. Everything else was a losing bet because no clear signal could be derived.
Snake86
Comment from MarcoA
Time 16 July, 2008 at 11:19 pm
Colin,
Good to see you back in the saddle. I wholeheartedly agree with your Lien review. I too experienced an allergic reaction to this puff piece. Whenever I see a trading book I actually like, I turn to the spine - never Wiley, also missing is the typical $79 Wiley price tag. Has Wiley ever published a really good trading book?.
Comment from MarcoA
Time 16 July, 2008 at 11:22 pm
Colin,
Are you not moderating comments?. Some nut job could just wander in here and say Kathy Lien wrote a puff piece.
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Comment from caprica
Time 15 July, 2008 at 5:26 pm
Hey Colin,
Your comments on Kathy are interesting. I have read and re-read her book over the years and back tested all her systems as well. My conclusion after all of that was that Kathy is probably a good financial reporter and the face of FXCM’s dailyfx, she isn’t a great trader (Rich over forexproject experienced that one himself when he signed up to her BKFX trading signals). However, having said all of that, Kathy’s book is pick of the bunch of a set of really woeful forex books by Wiley. If you want to point the finger at the huckster here - it is Wiley Books. They are the one who are operating the book store at the Casino.
cheers, Caprica