9 & 10 February 2009

10 February, 2009 (18:21) | Journal | By: Colin McGinley

The last few days have been a bit of a roller coaster ride, both in terms of the markets gyrations and my emotions.

EUR/USD has been swinging wildly back and forth between 1.300 and 1.2800. Russian debt problems, the US stimulus package, the build up to the US Treasury bank bailout announcement and the damp squid it turned out to be have all contributed to the market indecisiveness. Each time it does one of these wild swings I seem to be caught on the wrong side.

I’ve managed to extradite myself from poor positions twice so far but I’m not sure if my third attempt will be a charm.

At the start of the week I had two short positions that were held over from Friday, one had been entered at 1.2800, the other at 1.2880.

I was going to be happy if the later one came back to breakeven at 1.2880. I didn’t really fancy the chances of a full retrace to 1.2800 so I put my target level for the first at the same 1.2880 level. Both trades were successfully closed out and I took an 80 pip loss there, which was bearable. If I hadn’t updated my target for the 1.2800 trade it would have been later closed out at my stop loss for a loss of 250 pips, as the market went on to breach 1.3050 in early NY trading.

The euro bulls were in charge up until around noon EST on Monday. After that my luck seemed to be out for the remainder of the day. I placed two further trades during the afternoon which missed their profit targets by a pip or two. If I had entered those trades 10 pips less on each they would have been closed out successfully. It was slightly frustrating knowing that my timing had been just slightly off, while having to watch the market fall still holding onto those trades.

Since I had two trades still open I was still watching the markets into the Asian session. Another two entries and another two underwater trades! Aaahh!

If price had fallen below 1.2800 then I would have start to cut my losses as that is where I saw the bears really gaining the upper hand.

Once again the tables turned and the euro bulls made a reappearance. All four of my open trades were eventually closed out in positive territory, just in time for Geithner’s speech.

After the speech the equity markets started to tank and risk aversion seemed to be in the air again.

I saw myself as a seller below 1.3000. Unfortunately my itchy trigger finger conspired against me. Maybe it was relief at getting out of those four trades I’d had to hold overnight. Whatever the reason I made too many trades, too quickly and too rashly between 11:00 EST and 11:30 EST. I ended up holding a long trade as price inched back down to 1.3000. Being long I looked for another bounce at 1.3000 and entered a second long.

I despair knowing that I wanted to go short on a break of 1.3000 but couldn’t due to the two longs that I was holding :)

I’ve felt just as emotional attached to these demo trades as I have to ones in my real account in the past. These trades matter. My trading performance matters. Even though the wins and losses are just monopoly money at the end of day, it’s my ability to perform as a trader that is the real bottom line here. That’s why the emotional aspect is there and this is why demo trading can be just as valuable as trading a real account. If you approach it with the correct frame of mind demo trading offers you just the same opportunity to show yourself as a profitable trader without the real risk of losing actual money.

  Trade    Market         Direction   Entry           Exit           Pips  
  1 EUR/USD Short 1.2800 1.2880 (80)
  2 EUR/USD Short 1.2880 1.2880 0
  3 EUR/USD Long 1.3050 1.3060 10
  4 EUR/USD Long 1.3059 1.3069 10
  5 EUR/USD Long 1.3020 1.3030 10
  6 EUR/USD Long 1.2958 1.2968 10
  7 EUR/USD Long 1.2916 1.2935 19
  8 EUR/USD Long 1.2950 1.2960 10
  9 EUR/USD Long 1.3000 1.3003 3
  10 EUR/USD Short 1.3015 1.3036 (21)
  11 EUR/USD Long 1.3044 1.3053 9

9 February pips: (70)
10 February pips: 50

EUR/USD chart - 9 February 2009

EUR/USD chart - 10 February 2009

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