Millipede numbers

15 November 2010 (16:33) | Journal | By: Colin McGinley

I’ve been trading using the millipede method for just over two months. During that time I’ve been recording my trades in a spreadsheet and I thought it might be time to record them here. The data below is compiled from trading a live account from September 7 through November 13.

I pretty much decided to jump in at the deep end and trade multiple currencies at once. Since not all currencies are going to be trending over the long term (on the daily and weekly charts) this allowed me a greater chance of latching onto a couple of pairs that might have substantial moves. I managed to grab toe holds in two currency pairs that moved nicely (EUR/USD and AUD/USD), while failing to gain a foothold in others (GBP/USD, EUR/CHF) that also trended during the last two months.

I was able to cover my costs in AUD/USD (but have since gone back into the red overall) while the euro shows a nice profit overall. The large move I captured in EUR/USD shows the potential for this method, while the fact that I have yet to capture moves in the other currencies shows that it is going to take time and patience to reap positive benefits across the board.

Just four stacked trades in the euro easily paid for the 35 losing and breakeven trades I had to put on to participate, while I have one remaining long position still in place from 1.2665 in case the current retrace falters and we see new highs above 1.4300.

  Currency    All Trades         Losing Trades   Breakeven Trades           Winning Trades           Breakeven Rate   Losing Pips   Winning Pips   Total Pips  
  EUR/USD 39 14 21 4 53.85% -712.1 2142.3 1430.2
  GBP/USD 28 16 12 0 42.86% -780.4 0 -780.4
  USD/JPY 28 18 10 0 35.71% -394.7 0 -394.7
  USD/CAD 23 8 15 0 65.22% -256 0 -256
  USD/CHF 21 12 9 0 42.86% -359 0 -359
  AUD/USD 30 18 10 2 33.33% -589.8 342.8 -247
  EUR/JPY 17 7 10 0 58.82% -205.2 0 -205.2
  GBP/JPY 15 9 6 0 40.00% -473.6 0 -473.6
  EUR/CHF 16 9 7 0 43.75% -323 0 -323
  Total 217 111 100 6 46.08% -4093.8 2485.1 -1608.7

I’ve had some incredibly sloppy and frankly pathetic trading days. My worst sin has been to put on multiple trades almost simultaneously across numerous pairs. For example, on some news announcement such as the NFP or Fed rate meeting, I would go USD long across pairs such as Euro, Aussie, Loonie and Sterling. If there was a reversal then I’d get stopped out of four positions instead of having just picked the best looking pair and risking one trade.

It’s taken three such occurrences for me to mend my ways; I now restrict to only opening or placing two orders per hour. This way, even if I think the USD is going to skyrocket that day, I have to pick the two currencies that I think have the best chance of that playing out in.

The data also shows that I need to work on getting a higher percentage of breakeven trades compared to my losing trades. Currently only 46% of my non-winning trades are breakeven. This number needs to get above 50% in the near future, with a long term goal of seeing it closer to 70%. I need to be more selective in my entries and to stop trying to force every trade and situation.

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