Calm before the storm

5 March 2011 (16:17) | Journal | By: Colin McGinley

Friday’s NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) news event is always one of the most volatile times of the month. The market often contracts and goes into waiting mode for 12 or 18 hours before the data release. This time around things seem to have gone into waiting mode soon after Trichet’s press conference on Thursday where he uttered the magic words ‘strong vigilance’ and sent the euro souring. It rose quickly but then hung under 1.4000.

Even though I was anticipated a narrower range than normal for the 6:00-7:00 EST hour I still got up and watched the market for the hour. Since I only trade for the single hour a day I need to put the time in, even if I don’t think there are going to be any prime opportunities. The exposure is still valuable.

In the end I did take a trade. I went short looking to ride a false breakout. Knowing that the market was unlikely to have any big moves before 8:30 EST I was happy to take 4 pips (from my average entry point) at the minor support level of 1.3969.

EUR/USD chart - 4 March 2011

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