ForexSpirit

Another day of EUR/USD stuck within the 1.4750-4900 range. The formation of an ascending triangle pattern at the top of the range over the past couple of sessions had me thinking that a break higher might be on the cards soon.

For that reason I decided to go with a long bias rather than my usual counter trend approach to the move up in the London session so far.

Bias: long
Conviction: weak

The two entries in the blue sequence were based off small bounces up from support levels. Once I put on a second leg in a trade sequence I will alter the SL and TP levels to be the same for each leg based on where the new average price is. I didn’t get a chance to do any alterations before price took off like a rocket and hit the default TP level that is placed for each new entry. That’s why there are two exits for the blue sequence rather than my usual (larger) one.

The strength and pace of the surge gave me added confidence that the bulls were getting close to forcing a breakout above 1.4900 soon. I’ve seen some pretty large moves happen in the 6:00 EDT hour even through it is generally pretty languid, so it could certainly happen on my watch.

So I stuck to my long bias and placed two entries in the red sequence which were pretty similar to the price levels of the blue entries. Unfortunately this time there was no mad burst higher. Instead it turned dead as a doornail. With an average price of 1.48586 I had an initial TP of 1.4862. As time dragged on into the 7:00 EDT hour I resorted to being happy with BE, but even that failed to materialise. With Challenger job data up at 7:30 EDT I decided I’d rather be out than run the gauntlet of any jobs related news (even if the Challenger data is a low risk event).

I took a 3 pip hit which left me with a 0.7% gain for the day.

And just to rub salt in the wound for the second day in a row, a minute after I exited price pushed up, going on to hit both my BE and original TP level by 7:23 EDT. The 1.4850 level held for the rest of the morning, with a pop north of 1.4900 occurring after the release of the ADP emloyment data at 8:15 EDT.

I found holding out for some sort of resolution to the red sequence to be more mentally taxing than usual. I think the key difference today was that I had already pocketed a full 1% gain from the blue sequence. After the fortuitous spike up that netted me that gain I could have just walked away, happy with my result for the day. But I didn’t. I stayed and tried to extract even more from the market for two reasons.

First, I need to press any advantage I might have if I see one. The market seemed to be want to break higher, so I tried to go long with it. On days like these that work out I’ll hopefully make a couple of percent profit. I was willing to risk some of my day’s gain for an outstanding return.

Secondly, I value trading for the full hour to get as much scalping experience and exposure as possible. If I’m watching the market I want to be able to place a trade if I see an opportunity. Each trade is a separate roll of the dice. Although my mind is weighted down by the knowledge of the prior gain (and not wanting to give it back) I need to press on and trade what I see and not be shackled by my prior trades (wins or losses). Not an easy mental state to achieve but something that will hopefully become easier with time and lots of practice.