ForexSpirit

With the all important Greek austerity vote looming the euro continued to buy the rumour that all is right with the euro (for now) and that the vote will be successful.

The London session breached 1.4400 and had already formed a double top at 1.4415. It didn’t seem likely that the euro bears were going to make an appearance until at least after the Greek vote so I went with a long bias mindful that the market would most likely be nervy and jumpy.

The best laugh I’ve had today is the excuse given by the coach of the women’s North Korean soccer team as to why they lost 2-0 to the US yesterday in the Women’s World Cup, from the Baltimore Sun match report:

Afterward, North Korean coach Kim Kwang Min blamed his team’s failings in the second half on a June 8 lightning strike during training in Pyongyang that sent “more than five” players to the hospital. Goalkeeper Hong Myong Hui, four defenders and some of the midfielders were the players most affected, Kim said.

“The physicians actually said the players were not capable of playing in the tournament,” he said through an interpreter. “They’re not physically ready for this match, but they had a strong will.”

Bias: long
Conviction: weak

My trading session started with price flirting with the daily high of 1.4415 again. I didn’t see it as a high probability play yet to try and short just a bounce down from the resistance level.

Price lumbered down to 1.4400 and there seemed to be a bit of minor support at 1.4403. Price pierced 1.4400 and then came back up to that minor support level. I saw it as a passable false breakout, coupled with my long bias and the bounce back above 1.4400 I went long. It took ten minutes of waiting before I saw price go my way, easily hitting my TP of 10 pips once the S/R level at 1.4403 was overcome.

Price then proceeded to break to new highs before just as promptly falling back below the old high of 1.4417. This looked a classic false breakout and I jumped short. I only went with a 5:1 geared position (instead of a 10:1 one) for two primary reasons: I wasn’t convinced the bears were out in force yet and so I didn’t want to give up all of my first win if that proved to be the case and the breakout was almost 10 pips which is a bit more than I’m used to seeing (which thus had me acting a bit more conservatively).

If I had any fault with today’s trading it is probably that I held this second trade too long. When a false breakout unfolds to spec price will generally move quickly into the black. Today it formed a 10 pip range between the old high at 1.4415 and the new one at 1.4425. When price failed to move into the black on the second main attempt down (at 6:49 EDT) that should have been enough for me to pull the plug, especially given my doubts about the bears ability to come to the party.