Comments for ForexSpirit http://www.forexspirit.com Colin McGinley's journey of consistent, profitable forex trading Mon, 01 Dec 2008 20:51:34 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=abc Comment on Lies, damn lies, and statistics by jdfagan http://www.forexspirit.com/2007/11/07/lies-damn-lies-and-statistics/#comment-1002 jdfagan Mon, 24 Nov 2008 06:39:53 +0000 http://www.forexspirit.com/2007/11/07/lies-damn-lies-and-statistics/#comment-1002 Ok...I think I just realized I must use this formula to figure out the theoretical last value of regressed return via y = mx + b where m = slope and b = intercept. So I would plug in X value for last bar of chart and the other values which I've calculated and this would then spit back the ending value of this regressed line. From there it should then be pretty easy to calculate the RAR%. Is this the approach you took? Ok…I think I just realized I must use this formula to figure out the theoretical last value of regressed return via y = mx + b where m = slope and b = intercept. So I would plug in X value for last bar of chart and the other values which I’ve calculated and this would then spit back the ending value of this regressed line. From there it should then be pretty easy to calculate the RAR%. Is this the approach you took?

]]> Comment on Lies, damn lies, and statistics by jdfagan http://www.forexspirit.com/2007/11/07/lies-damn-lies-and-statistics/#comment-1001 jdfagan Mon, 24 Nov 2008 06:25:30 +0000 http://www.forexspirit.com/2007/11/07/lies-damn-lies-and-statistics/#comment-1001 Nice writeup. I was just trying to figure Curtis Faith's robust metrics for my own use as well - RAR% and RRRR. I've figured out the AvgMaxDD stuff but before I can accurately calculate RRRR, I was wondering if I was calculating the RAR% correct. I calculated the slope of the equity curve but not sure how exactly RAR% maps to slope. For instance, I've outputted the equity bar by bar (240 min bars in my case for a futures market) and import this into Excel to perform the calculations of slope, intercept and correlation coefficient. Does one just multiply slope result by 100 to make it % or is it already expressed as %? Further, I was wondering if you first take the log10 of the equity so that you take into account geometric growth over time - this would impact the slope I believe and thus the RAR% correct? JD Fagan Nice writeup. I was just trying to figure Curtis Faith’s robust metrics for my own use as well - RAR% and RRRR. I’ve figured out the AvgMaxDD stuff but before I can accurately calculate RRRR, I was wondering if I was calculating the RAR% correct.

I calculated the slope of the equity curve but not sure how exactly RAR% maps to slope. For instance, I’ve outputted the equity bar by bar (240 min bars in my case for a futures market) and import this into Excel to perform the calculations of slope, intercept and correlation coefficient. Does one just multiply slope result by 100 to make it % or is it already expressed as %?

Further, I was wondering if you first take the log10 of the equity so that you take into account geometric growth over time - this would impact the slope I believe and thus the RAR% correct?

JD Fagan

]]> Comment on Scalp journal - 29 October 2008 by PipDaddy http://www.forexspirit.com/2008/10/29/scalp-journal-29-october-2008/#comment-996 PipDaddy Fri, 31 Oct 2008 09:19:37 +0000 http://www.forexspirit.com/?p=342#comment-996 Nice trades! I'm trying to learn scalping, so I'll keep an eye on how you do it. Nice trades! I’m trying to learn scalping, so I’ll keep an eye on how you do it.

]]> Comment on Scalp journal by FX http://www.forexspirit.com/2008/10/07/scalp-journal/#comment-993 FX Wed, 08 Oct 2008 07:20:34 +0000 http://www.forexspirit.com/?p=315#comment-993 I use HandySnap screen capture software, so after the trade I take a capture like hunter after his kill :D I use HandySnap screen capture software, so after the trade I take a capture like hunter after his kill :D

]]> Comment on Scalp journal by Colin McGinley http://www.forexspirit.com/2008/10/07/scalp-journal/#comment-992 Colin McGinley Tue, 07 Oct 2008 22:15:14 +0000 http://www.forexspirit.com/?p=315#comment-992 The 15 minute charts are just to show where the various trades took place in the context of that day's movements. I seem to alternate between the 1 and 5 minute charts for actually deciding on where to place entries. I know from experience that these screen grabs only present a quick snapshot of the trades in question. In the past I've attempted to parse some of my previous trades and there is only so much information that a single chart can impart. In many cases the most useful information on the chart was the date and times of the various trades. I then opened a regular charting application and was then able to better review the circumstances that led up to that point. I doubt that I'm going to be able to document each trade individually on a low time frame chart due to limited time but I'll do so where appropriate. The 15 minute charts are just to show where the various trades took place in the context of that day’s movements.

I seem to alternate between the 1 and 5 minute charts for actually deciding on where to place entries.

I know from experience that these screen grabs only present a quick snapshot of the trades in question. In the past I’ve attempted to parse some of my previous trades and there is only so much information that a single chart can impart. In many cases the most useful information on the chart was the date and times of the various trades. I then opened a regular charting application and was then able to better review the circumstances that led up to that point.

I doubt that I’m going to be able to document each trade individually on a low time frame chart due to limited time but I’ll do so where appropriate.

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