ForexSpirit

After a bit of back and forth trading on Monday, the Greek news ended up sending the markets into a coma rather than giving them any immediate direction. It took until Thursday before movement began to reappear, with euro bulls and USD bears across the board rejoicing. I missed the one clean long entry point in EUR/USD on Thursday, so now I have to settle for any good long signal that might coincide with the start of a bull trend channel.

This week showcased the razor sharp line between success and failure in trading. Unfortunately I fell just a little short, knowing if I had seen things just slightly earlier that I would have had a brilliant week.

On Tuesday I was seeing the opportunity of some strong USD movement across multiple pairs. They all seemed to be lining up together. I ended up having three positions on simultaneously: in EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CAD, all USD bullish. The euro seemed to be leading the charge, as it so often does. When my EUR/USD trade hit its target the other two trades were lagging behind. Sterling wasn’t too far behind but the Loonie hadn’t even really made it into positive territory.

Instead of seeing the signs that the USD bulls were taking a break (euro bouncing off strong support), I held out hope and left the two other trades on. Only when the lack of follow through hit me in the head (by killing my GBP/USD trade at breakeven) did I give in and pull the plug on the USD/CAD trade too.

If I had been more alert to what was unfolding I could have closed the GBP/USD trade for at least 40 pips and gotten out at break even on the USD/CAD. Even more infuriating was that my USD bullish mindset meant I was too chicken to take the AUD/USD long signal bar that I saw.

All told, my 40 pip gain from the three trades I took could instead have been 160 pips from four trades. That’s the razor sharp line right there.

I also think that I was kicking myself so much about messing that up that it impacted my trading for the next day or two, especially the disastrous GBP/USD trade I placed on Wednesday. I think I was just unconsciously looking to make back up all those pips I’d left lying on the table and thus was willing to take a weak signal.

The Greek vote later today could really change things up if the vote fails. With that in mind, here’s what my chart reading skills deduce right now.